marketplace forecast

18-month growth and profitability plan

Platform upgrade months 1-2, seller conferences months 3 and 4, $4k/mo seller acquisition from month 5. Breakeven month 15, growing through month 18.

GMV at Month 18

—

monthly run rate

Platform rev. M18

—

fees + subs monthly

12M topline gross

—

all revenue, year 1

18M topline gross

—

all revenue, full run

MRR at Month 18

—

subscriptions only

Total investment

—

peak, Month 14

Buyers at M18

—

cumulative

Breakeven

Month 15

profitable M15 onward

Revenue summary

Year 1 — Months 1 to 12

Topline gross revenue—
Of which: retail sales—
Of which: platform fees + subs—
Gross profit (after COGS)—
Monthly GMV end of year—

Full run — Months 1 to 18

Topline gross revenue—
Of which: retail sales—
Of which: platform fees + subs—
Gross profit (after COGS)—
Monthly GMV at Month 18—

Revenue streams

Platform revenue by source — monthly

Zero platform revenue in months 1-3 during platform upgrade. Conferences in months 3 and 4 seed the seller base. Months 13-18 are projected.

Buyer subscriptions ($5/mo) Seller subscriptions ($99/mo) Seller take rate (10%)
Revenue $0 M1-M3, grows to $105.9k/mo by M18.

Spend vs income

Where money goes versus where it comes from

Bars above zero are income, bars below are costs. The gap closes at Month 15 and the income side continues to grow beyond it.

INCOME Buyer subs Seller subs Seller take SPEND Buyer marketing Labor Seller acq Software Retail loss Net P&L
Gap closes M15. Income exceeds costs by $29.6k at M18.

Profitability

Gross profit converging on and surpassing operating costs

Gross profit crosses operating costs at Month 15 and continues climbing. By Month 18 the business generates $29.6k net income per month.

Gross profit (rising) Operating costs Net burn Net profit (M15+)
Crossover M15. Net profit +$11.4k M16, +$20.8k M17, +$29.6k M18.

Order economics

Retail-to-seller shift — share of orders

Zero seller coverage months 1-3. Ramp starts month 4, reaching 57% by month 15 and 65% by month 18.

Seller-fulfilled (+10%) Retail-fulfilled (-5%)
0% seller M1-M3. 49% M12, 57% M15, 65% M18.

Buyer and seller growth

Buyer base compounds continuously. Seller count grows at ~15/month, with subscriptions building a strong recurring base.

Cumulative buyers Paying sellers
Buyers: 400 (M1) to 20,940 (M18). Sellers: 0 to 275.

Unit economics

Retail order — burden being replaced

We pay (100% COGS)-$75.00
Customer pays (5% discount)$71.25
Net per order-$3.75
Margin-5.3%
Share of orders at M1835%

Seller order — the target model

We pay (zero COGS)$0.00
Customer pays (no discount)$75.00
Take rate earned (10%)+$7.50
Margin+10.0%
Share of orders at M1865%